{
  "version": "1.0",
  "adopted_date": "2026-11-03",
  "audit_type": "Retrospective; not preregistered before the source forecasts",
  "timezone": "America/Chicago",
  "unit": "One numbered source-PDF row is one forecast record. No rows are excluded or split to improve the score.",
  "statuses": {
    "accurate": "After the published deadline, dated evidence establishes that every required, testable part of the original forecast was met under its locked criterion.",
    "inaccurate": "After the published deadline, dated evidence establishes that at least one required part failed under its locked criterion.",
    "unresolved": "No evidence review has been published, the deadline has not passed, or the available evidence cannot yet establish an outcome.",
    "unscorable": "The wording lacks an objectively testable meaning, metric, threshold, or horizon; required conditions did not occur; or the claim cannot be fairly resolved without adding assumptions. The review must explain why."
  },
  "rules": [
    "Preserve the full source wording, printed forecast-date cell, amendments, PDF result note, source page, and archived PDF. Printed dates are source claims, not independent proof of first publication.",
    "Publish a specific resolution criterion and deadline together before issuing a final score. Once published, that criterion and deadline cannot be edited in the application. Criteria first published here are retrospective and must not be described as preregistered.",
    "Final scores are issued only after the entire declared deadline has passed in America/Chicago. Evidence-as-of dates must cover that deadline and cannot be in the future. A continuing or negative prediction cannot be called accurate on interim progress.",
    "Use the metric, geography, threshold, range, observation period, and conditions actually stated in the source. Do not invent tolerances, use near misses as successes, substitute an intraday value for a closing or annual value, or select favorable dates. Ambiguity that materially changes the outcome is unscorable.",
    "Required compound claims must all be met for accurate. A disjunction is met only by a supported allowed branch. Missing evidence remains unresolved; a demonstrated required failure after the deadline is inaccurate. No partial-credit or on-track category enters the accuracy rate.",
    "Conditional forecasts require evidence that their stated trigger occurred. An unmet trigger after the horizon is unscorable, not automatically accurate or inaccurate. Missing or ambiguous conditions must be explained.",
    "Cite specific, dated, publicly accessible evidence, preferring official releases, legislation, court records, and original issuer or event records. Each final score requires at least one evidence URL and reasoning. The PDF's result column is preserved as an unverified source note and is not sufficient by itself for a final score.",
    "Accuracy equals accurate divided by accurate plus inaccurate, multiplied by 100. Show the denominator and resolved share of the full registry. Display accurate, inaccurate, unresolved, and unscorable counts separately. With no resolved forecasts, report no accuracy rate.",
    "Every published review or correction is appended to the public history with a timestamp, evidence-as-of date, explanation, sources, and methodology version. Prior reviews are not overwritten or deleted by the application. Source-wording revisions require a separately archived edition, not replacement of the original record."
  ]
}